Provided by Jon Gerhardt
We have just completed a truly historic election and as a citizen, you'll want to follow how President-elect Obama and the new Congress address issues of importance to you.
But as an investor, you might be particularly interested in how the election results can affect your investments, especially given the recent Wall Street turmoil. Based on what happened on Nov. 4, should you make any changes to your portfolio?
To answer that question, you may find it useful to review the history of the financial markets under different political scenarios, according to Ned Davis Research.
Since 1901, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has shown an average annualized return of about 12 percent under Democratic presidents, compared to about 8 percent under Republicans. When Democrats have controlled Congress, the Dow's average annualized return has been about 11 percent, compared to about 8 percent when the Republicans were in control.
Since 1925, long-term government bonds have returned more than 7 percent under Republican presidents, compared to about 3.4 percent under Democrats. When Republicans have controlled Congress, the bond market also fared better than when Democrats were in charge.
But while it's interesting to study the past, it's not necessarily instructive about the future.
It's true that by changing our tax laws, government spending and industry regulations, any given president and Congress can affect economic growth, jobs, interest rates and inflation, and all these factors, in turn, can affect the financial markets. Still, it's impossible to predict just how these forces will influence the investment world.
Political candidates often make promises that never turn into reality, and even if they do, they can have unintended consequences.
Ultimately, the free-market forces of our capitalistic system are likely more powerful than political forces in determining the ultimate performance of investments. As a country, we have experienced many political changes and upheavals, but, over time, our economy has always proven resilient enough to provide opportunities for those people with the faith to invest for the future.
Here's the bottom line: You don't need to change your investment style or revamp your portfolio in response to the election results.