This is the third part in my three part series that I've written. In the first part “Where We've Been”, I talked about the history of the automobile until the late 20th century. In the second installment “Where We Are”, I discussed the industry where it stands now and now I'd like to take a look into the future.

In 2011, we have many new choices in transportation – traditional gasoline engines have gotten very sophisticated, hybrid vehicles have been out for several years, electric-only cars are making their way to the marketplace, diesel engines continue to evolve and new possibilities are on the horizon.

As with most new technology, it is expensive at first but as more people adopt it the costs go down. This is one of the reasons we have relied on traditional gasoline power for so long – the cost to vehicle manufacturers for developing new technology is very high and the companies were more interested in keeping sales up and that led to delayed investments into alternative fuels. This, coupled with the relatively low cost of gasoline (until recently!) and the political clout of the large oil and fuel companies kept gasoline in our vehicles.

General Motors did have an electric car in the late 80's called the EV-1, but the program was scrapped. Likewise, Chrysler developed a hybrid years before the Prius hit our streets but it, too, was scrapped.

Now that new emissions regulations, including the reduction of greenhouse gasses and rising fuel prices are becoming a reality to manufacturers, expect to see some very new and exciting things being offered.

Electric cars look promising

With local municipalities investing in a new grid of vehicle charging stations (likely at places like park-and-rides first) and with government incentives to buy battery powered vehicles, the Nissan Leaf is in test markets right now, as is the Chevy Volt. The difference between the two is that the Leaf is a 100% electric powered car and the Volt is an electric powered car with a smaller range and an on-board small engine that will serve as the generator. Tesla is an independent company that just received a big investment from Toyota and looks to be an up-and-coming player in the electric vehicle race.

Likewise, from a maintenance standpoint, instead of changing engine coolant and water pumps, electric-only vehicles will need the HV battery and motor cooling system serviced and many other differences in what your local shop will be doing for you.

There are other technologies

We are also looking forward to fuel cells and other possible hydrogen powered options – which will be a zero emissions vehicle (like electric vehicles are) and companies are looking at other ways to bring emissions down to zero or near zero.

Don't rule out natural gas (CNG) or propane as fuel – they have been used successfully in the past and with rising fuel prices, may make a comeback.
Until the end of fossil fuel powered cars, the ways to control the emissions and mileage from gasoline and diesel will continue to be refined, resulting in ultra-sophisticated computer systems and challenges to the service industry like we've never seen – some are already here, like Gasoline Direct Injection (or GDI) which uses extremely high fuel pressures and special components that allow fuel to be injected at various points during the engine cycle (unlike previous fuel systems of the last 100 years).

We should expect further use of lightweight materials for fuel savings and the continuing evolution of tires and vehicle monitoring systems (Tire pressure monitoring is already mandatory on all new vehicles) – the advancement of satellite and cell-phone communication are allowing you to use your phone to act as a remote for the car (alarm, locks, etc.) and will likely allow for more uses, such as using the car's built in GPS features to track it's whereabouts (teenage drivers anyone?) and receive notices about recalls directly from the dealership closest to you.

Diagnosis and repair will still be necessary

All of these conveniences will not come without a price, though, as less and less mechanical service is needed but more and more electronic diagnostic skills and tools will be required.

We may not be in the “Jetsons'” era quite yet, but with video-conferencing likely to appear in vehicles, the increased use of systems designed to take over for the driver – for example, a collision avoidance system that will apply the brakes for you and parking systems that use sensors to parallel park for you - we are not too far off. Look for home charging stations, more solar power usage in vehicles and other exotic ideas we haven't even thought of yet.

We've come a long way in the last century, from open-air “horseless carriages” to sleek, economical sedans with several hundred horsepower. It is a bold new world we are stepping into, but like my predecessors, we will face the challenges and keep our transportation system moving.

Drive Safe!

Todd

Todd Ainsworth is one of the owners of West Seattle Autoworks and can be reached at todd400@comcast.net or 206.257.5344.