According to the Seattle Monorail Project (SMP), the proposed Green Line monorail would be "fast" and "convenient." For most of those who would use it to get between Ballard and downtown, the monorail would actually be slower and/or less convenient than using current express buses.

There are four different express bus routes between Ballard and downtown. In Ballard and Crown Hill there are about 60 bus stops on these four routes. There would be only three monorail stations total for Ballard and Crown Hill.

Most of those people in Ballard and Crown Hill who are expected to use the Green Line live much closer to a bus stop than to a planned monorail station. The Green Line rider ship forecast study estimates that the average walking time to and from monorail stations for people using the Green Line between the Crown Hill station and Madison Street downtown would be about 17 minutes longer than the walking time for express bus riders to and from bus stops on this trip.

The estimated in-vehicle time by monorail from the Crown Hill station to Madison Street is 18.5 minutes. This is only 7.5 minutes faster than the average 26 minutes this trip takes by express bus. When you include walking times to and from monorail stations and bus stops, the total time of this trip would be 9.5 minutes longer by monorail than by express bus.

The Seattle Monorail Project estimates about half of Green Line riders will transfer to the monorail from "feeder" buses. Most feeder buses in Ballard will probably come to the monorail station at N.W. Market Street. From the Market Street station to downtown the monorail would take 15 minutes, compared to 18 minutes by express bus -- a difference of only three minutes. The average wait for a monorail train during peak hours will be four minutes. If these riders just stayed on the bus, they would reach downtown faster than by getting off the bus and waiting for the monorail.

Not only would transferring to the monorail at the Market Street station mean a longer travel time than just taking the bus the entire way, but transit experts also agree that riders hate to transfer. The gold standard on any transit system is a "one-seat ride" -- you stay in the same seat for the entire trip. Being forced to get off one vehicle and board another is considered such a hassle by transit riders that studies have found it has the same negative effect on rider ship as actually making the trip longer. This is referred to as the "transfer penalty." The lowest transfer penalty used in transit rider ship forecasts is about 10 minutes. If this low transfer penalty is used, then people in Ballard and Crown Hill who transfer from bus to monorail at the Market Street station would perceive their trips to downtown to take about 11 minutes longer by monorail than by express bus.

The Green Line rider ship forecast did not take into account any transfer penalty. This forecast also used a time of 46.67 minutes for how long it takes to get from Northwest 85th to Madison Street by bus, when the correct time is about 26 minutes. So the Green Line rider ship projections are grossly inflated.

Because of longer walks and forced transfers, for most people, using the monorail will actually be slower and/or less convenient than taking the express bus. This means that many people who now take express bus between Ballard and downtown will likely drive their cars instead of using the monorail, since, if the Green Line is built, all bus routes between Ballard and downtown will be eliminated. Therefore, building the Green Line will probably add cars to Seattle's streets, not remove them.

Greg Buck

Ballard