The financial picture for potential tax growth in the North Highline area is bleak for Burien, new figures given the city show.

An operating deficit could increase over the next six years.

Collected and compiled by Berk & Associates, the figures are a part of a council study to determine whether to establish a "Potential Annexation Area" including North Highline.

Scott Greenberg, Burien's community development director, said the city should expect estimated capital needs over $29 million for the area between now and 2010.

This would average about $5 million a year.

Greenberg said the total includes transportation needs of $21.3 million; $4.3 million for surface water management needs; and parks and general government needs of $3.5 million.

An assessment of economic development potential in North Highline to determine how Burien could cover the increased costs was also discouraging.

Greenberg said all of North Highline, including the retail areas of Boulevard Park, Top Hat and White Center, is within the primary market areas of both downtown Burien and Westwood Village in West Seattle.

"[This] leads to the conclusion that there is a potential for modest retail growth in the area, about 200,000 square feet," said Greenberg.

He noted the city's economist looked at potential retail, industrial and office growth within North Highline in preparing his assessment.

For growth to occur, Greenberg cautioned, there would need to be density increases around the retail nodes so more people would be able to shop.

In addition, there would need to be some household income increases over time to bring the level of spending up in the area.

"Our consultant's conclusion is that even with that modest growth, and primarily because of the drain of dollars out of North Highline to downtown Burien and Westwood Village, that the sales tax revenue growth in North Highline will be two to three times behind Burien's projected sales tax revenue growth in the future."

In terms of industrial potential, two areas were highlighted in White Center and South Park.

Greenberg said the consultants felt that White Center was not an optimal location for industry due to poor highway access and close proximity to housing.

On the other hand, he said, South Park has excellent highway access, but the problem is there are no large vacant tracts of land available for development.

He said the city's consultants felt that growth in the industrial sector couldn't be expected, and the nature of these uses would be unlikely to change much in the future.

Potential office growth within North Highline was determined to be even more limited than the potential for retail or industrial growth.

Based on this assessment, it was concluded that the pace of commercial development in North Highline is unlikely to match Burien's growth in the future.

In addition, because the revenue generated from annexing the area is not likely to keep up, the operating subsidy required would eventually increase.

Greenberg said Burien could pay for the $29 million in capital needs for North Highline through other revenues, such as gas tax, real estate excise tax and cable franchise fees.

Revenues not included in the study include grants, a scheduled 2007 gasoline tax increase and a county subsidy.

The Burien City Council was scheduled to hold a public hearing about annexation of North Highline at 7 p.m. Dec. 12. Lawmakers are expected to vote on the matter at their Monday, Dec. 19, meeting.

Carrie Wood can be reached at newsdesk@robinsonnews.com or at 444-4873.