Boeing up, Airbus down until times a changin'
Tue, 07/25/2006
The Kinks were not referring to Boeing and Airbus when they observed, "It's a mixed up, muddled up, shook up world...." but they could have been.
Earlier this decade, Boeing was bedeviled by multiple problems including the resignations of CEOs Phil Condit following an ethics scandal and Harry Stonecipher after an extramarital affair with a female executive.
But then Boeing plane sales picked up and its management settled down.
Meanwhile, European rival Airbus hit a bad patch with poor sales, financial penalties, stock-price crashes, top management resignations and long development delays for its jumbo A380.
Some Highline residents are worried about added expenses at Sea-Tac to accommodate Airbus' gigantic jet. With the already huge costs for the third runway and other expansion projects, the last thing Sea-Tac needs is to add a special terminal for the A380.
But Sea-Tac airport director Mark Reis assures us that Airbus' super wide-body would bypass Sea-Tac in favor of international super hubs.
In an emergency, the jet could land at Sea-Tac but the taxiway parallel to the long runway would be shut down, according to Reis.
With all of its setbacks, Airbus was outsold 4-1 by Boeing in the first quarter of 2006 after beating Boeing the previous five years.
So going into the prestigious Farnborough International Airshow last week in London, Boeing officials could chill out a little bit while Airbus executives sweated the announcement of their new line of extra wide-body planes.
The Airbus executives revealed their new A350 will come in three sizes to compete against Boeing's 777 and 787. The new A350s won't roll out until four years after Boeing launches its first 787.
Airbus did snag more orders than Boeing at the show, but still lags behind for the year.
Journalists love these horse-race stories where they can pontificate on who's taken over the lead and who's fading against the guy coming up on the outside.
On the national scene, expect several frontrunners and dark horses to be built up and then torn down before the 2008 presidential election.
Locally, I've had a lot of fun with the saga of the Monorail versus light rail.
The Seattle swells dismissed light rail as "WPPS (pronounced, 'Whoops) on Wheels," referring to a nuclear-power project that ended with only one of five plants being built and a $7 billion bond default.
They touted what they said was a superior and cheaper alternative. The Monorail even exuded "a futuristic aura," they noted-- until it burned out in financial flames.
Meanwhile, drivers along state Route 518 can see the rapid progress of Sound Transit with light rail set to reach the airport by December 2009.
Planners in SeaTac and Tukwila are eagerly anticipating the economic boost from transit-oriented development around the stations.
The earlier decline of Boeing was a more personal story for me.
Growing up Burien in the 50s and 60s, I was in a Boeing family living in a Boeing community.
My dad hired on at Boeing a month before Pearl Harbor was bombed and he stayed for 31 years.
His big boss, president William Allen, a gruff, stuffy old guy, was eventually ranked in a Fortune Magazine article as the second greatest CEO of all time. The author cited Allen's ability to dismiss short-term profit in favor of going for long-term gain.
My image of my dad as a can-do, competent guy blended with my image of Boeing.
If my meager allowance had somehow allowed me to jet around the world, I would have arrogantly told the ticket clerks, "If it's not Boeing, I'm not going."
So as an adult surveying the Boeing mess, it was disheartening to realize it's wasn't my father's Boeing anymore.
So I'm happy that Boeing is back on the upswing.
But before I declare Boeing will stay on top in this mixed up, muddled up shook up world, I should heed Bob Dylan's admonishment to "writers and critics who prophesize with your pen":
"And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's naming.'
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin."