This November voters will decide on a ballot measure proposed by King County, called "Transit Now."

The measure would raise the County sales tax by 0.1 percent and use the new revenue to expand transit services. The package would increase the tax burden on citizens by an estimated $50 million a year by 2008. The new tax has no expiration date. The size of Metro would be permanently expanded by about 20 percent.

The County would use the new money to buy 175 more buses over the next four years. County officials say the new buses would add 700,000 new service hours over ten years, particularly in growing communities.

This proposal is considered in a Guide to Transit Now, a report published by the Washington Policy Center and makes several important findings.

- Metro has not fulfilled past promises. When the last sales tax increase passed in 2000, Metro promised over 500,000 hours of new service. Since then, Metro has only delivered 203,000 hours of new service.

- The new buses promised under "Transit Now" would not arrive until 2009. Consumers would pay the higher tax for two years before receiving any substantial increase in service.

- King County would collect the higher sales tax indefinitely. Under Transit Now, County sales tax revenues would pass the $1 billion mark by 2025. Presently, sales tax revenue is $355 million a year.

- Transit Now is unlikely to increase Metro's market share. Despite years of spending growth, the share of commuters using public transit has remained unchanged for 26 years. Adding more buses does not increase transit's overall share of passenger demand.

- Transit Now is one of several new transportation projects. All together, a Seattle resident is facing an additional $600 per year for transportation, compared to just a few years ago.

Understanding how Transit Now fits into the region's broader transportation needs will help citizens and public officials make better decisions and avoid costly mistakes. King County makes several claims about Transit Now:

Claim: "The ordinance will allow Metro to increase bus service an estimated 15 percent to 20 percent system wide over the next 10 years."

Metro's past predictions of increased service have not come true. In 2000, County officials promised 575,000 hours of new bus service in exchange for a 0.2 percent sales tax increase. Metro has only delivered 203,006 hours of new service. With Transit Now, compared to the 2000 proposal, Metro says it will provide three times more service for half as much money.

Claim: "The initiative is intended to get 50,000 to 60,000 drivers off the road and into buses each weekday to keep regional congestion in check. And, the initiative provides traffic relief to commuters who will be affected by construction of highways and other transportation projects."

Comparing population trends with projected growth reveals Metro's ridership will only increase between 10,000 to 15,000 riders over the next five years. This is far short of Transit Now's prediction of 50,000 to 60,000 riders. Population and ridership trends show that adding 175 more buses will do little to relieve traffic congestion. Between 1996 and 2004, Metro added 353 buses, yet average vehicle delay and commuter times increased.

Claim: "'We asked people what they wanted and they said they want more transit now,' said King County Executive Ron Sims. 'Unlike major construction projects, we can begin adding new bus service within months of voter approval.'"

According to Metro, 100 new hybrid diesel-electric buses would arrive in 2009; and the remaining 75 standard diesel buses in 2012. Under Transit Now, consumers would pay higher taxes for two years before they see any substantial increase in service.

King County officials say the public transit system needs to expand in order to keep pace with projected growth. Yet the data shows that Transit Now will not reduce traffic congestion and that spending more on buses will not increase public transit's share of daily ridership.

The decision to spend taxes on public transportation is a huge responsibility. Voters need to consider how various new taxes add up as they decide which measures will best serve their financial and transportation needs.

Michael Ennis is the director of the Center for Transportation Policy at the Washington Policy Center and can be reached at 937-9691 or washingtonpolicy.org. The full study, "Guide to Transit Now," is available at www.washingtonpolicy.org or by calling toll free 1-888-972-9272.