The future of the Northwest and its economy looks rosy and all we need to do is to shut out the rips and grinds of the rest of the United States. That was the warm and somewhat fuzzy news from Portland economist for hire William B. Conerly last week at Salty's in West Seattle.

He said our Seattle area economy is still hot and may well stay that way unless something yet unforseen arrives on the horizon.

Conerly was brought to to town by the folks at Viking Bank as a way to inform their small business clients (and all others, too) whether they should panic or just be calm and not worry too much.

Viking Bank was started in Ballard a few years ago, and has spread to West Seattle and beyond. As the bank's Website says, "When we're asked to jump through hoops to get a bank loan, most of us don't think to start our own bank. But Dr. Thorpe Kelly did. In 1992, the local obstetrician decided it was time a bank put his business needs first. And apparently it was just the medicine for local businesses. Viking Bank - born in a parking lot in Ballard - is now one of the fastest growing financial institutions in the Puget Sound Region."

Enough of the free plugs.

Conerly was an economist for the old First Interstate Bank who went into the private consulting business.

The joke goes, put 10 economists in a room and you will get 10 totally different views of the future.

How can an economist come smiling to Seattle on a Thursday where newspapers and the evening's news reports talked of doom and gloom brought on largely by the crash of the sub-prime mortgages in the rest of the country?

Well, he acknowledged that things real estate were bad in the southern part of our country.

Loans were not only given to people who could not really afford them but many were laden with freebies. In Phoenix, where the population grows at a rate of about 10,000 people a month, even free cars were given along with the loan for the new house - of course, the car price was dumped into the loan balance. Crazy things, mostly avoided here, Conerly said, because we have better trained real estate professionals who don't stoop to such things.

Conerly says Gross Domestic Product, the basic measurement of the eonomy, is expected to grow next year, but not at the record of the past few months, but still a long way from a recession. Also, growth of retail sales is slowing, but orders for capital goods is maintaining a slow growth.

So, what does all that mumbo-jumbo economist talk mean? Well, we think he is saying everything is steady as she goes in Seattle and the Northwest, with Boeing and Microsoft holding a lot together. Nothing spectacular, but no disaster either. No one is talking about the last person should turn out the lights. Our economy is growing perhaps out of a robust period, but not into a tailspin.

He did have a rather discouraging word for the future of West Seattle as far as housing is concerned. Prices are going up, and will probably continue to go up. Condos are sprouting like weeds and apartment units are dwindling and the prices of new apartments will need to double or more the current cost for the developers to get their investments back.

Where will the $20,000 a year people, those who work in the factories, coffee shops and grocery stores, live?

"Not in Seattle," said Conerly. "They will have to move, maybe to Yakima."

It is a sad forcast for our lovely city, but apparently the future our current leaders at City Hall, in the Legislature and Court House see as the way to go.

We only wish that Viking would invite those leaders to their next economic forecast so they can hear the reality that their ivory towers seem to filter out.

-Jack Mayne