By Patrick Robinson
If it seems as if things are moving faster, that’s no illusion. Certainly as we age and the repetition of experiences layers upon memories, it can feel that way. But in fact the pace of change is increasing, led for both good and bad by technology.
In a recent paper written by a former employee of Artificial Intelligence leader Open AI, the suggestion was made that it is not unlikely we will reach what is called Artificial General Intelligence within the next three years.
The implications of that achievement are staggering.
According to the McKinsey report, AI is expected to replace 2.4 million US jobs by 2030, with an additional 12 million occupational shifts.Researchers estimate that anywhere from 9% to 47% of jobs could be automated in the future
Yet we are not now preparing young people for these swiftly oncoming changes.
The power of artificial intelligence is largely misunderstood and therefore as it becomes more pervasive will be feared and opposed, something already weakly offered by those suggesting we “shut it down” without grasping that it is being developed all over the world.
AI will without question change commerce, research, medicine, manufacturing, and much more. It is already impacting education though perhaps not in the most positive way initially. We must be preparing students for the fact that many of the jobs their parents are doing now won’t even exist in 15 years.
But the biggest concern I have is that government, much of which is literally languishing in the technology of the last century, will fall ever further behind. AI could, if employed properly find and manage government waste by monitoring supply usage, purchasing, seek better pricing and even trade with other departments or jurisdictions evening out shortages and surpluses.
This isn’t about buying new computers and expanding IT departments. It’s about doing a complete reassessment of government’s approach to find ways that AI can save money, increase efficiency, reduce waste, and aid in the decision making process. From meeting summaries, to better accounting AI could not just make government better, it could ironically make it more human. The time spent in meetings just evaluating numbers, communicating the status of projects, even formulating policy could in fact be made better by allowing people in government to be more socially connected, and deal with people directly.
The speed with which we will reach what computer science calls Super Intelligence will shock many people but it’s now very likely going to happen within the next ten years. And we most certainly have rivals in the world who are working to have the most powerful versions of it possible. It’s essential we recognize this widely and work toward students prepared to deal with it and government prepared to maximize it.